ANALYSIS | As Djibouti’s Mahamoud Youssouf Becomes AU Commission’s Helmsman

As he assumes duty as the 5th substantive Chairperson of the African Union Commission, we examine Mahamoud Youssouf’s potential areas of priority vis-à-vis his predecessor, Moussa Faki Mahamat’s, and ask how stylistically similar or substantially different their tours of duty as Africa’s chief diplomats might be.

Until he was elected Africa’s top diplomat in February at the 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf was Djibouti’s longest-serving foreign minister for 20 years (2005 – 2025).  

Youssouf clinched the coveted African Union Commission Chairperson’s gavel having garnered the required two-third majority votes from the 49 eligible AU Member States. Yet, this was only possible after an intense seven tough voting rounds that ended with 33 votes for Youssouf against Kenya’s Raila Odinga’s 22 votes. A former Kenyan Prime Minister Odinga was also the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure Development.

All eyes are now on the 60-year-old Djiboutian diplomat who for almost 3 decades served his country’s foreign service including stints as ambassador to Egypt and Chair of the Council of Foreign Ministers of both the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Having assumed office on Thursday Youssouf inherits a daunting to-do list: Silencing the Guns in Africa; implementing Agenda 2063; navigating climate diplomacy under Trump 2.0 Era; and fixing the AU Commission’s internal challenges, among others.

Four of the six newly elected AU Commissioners have also assumed office. They are Amb Bankole Adeoye, Political Affairs, Peace and Security; Mr. Moses Vilakati, Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment; Ms. Lerato Mataboge, Infrastructure and Energy; as well as Amb. Amma Twum-Amoah, Health, Humanitarian Affairs and Social Development.

Although one of the top two candidates ahead of the AU Commission elections, Youssouf’s victory was not a walk in the park. Prof Thomas Tieku, a leading African Union scholar at the University of Western Ontario, Canada, believes the challenge ahead for Youssouf is even more daunting: leading a Union under a new global order buckling under Trump’s shadow and raging conflicts from Sudan to the Sahel that could surge or fade under his watch. “He’s a unifier, not a showman yet his easy days might not last long,” Tieku says.

Sworn in alongside Algeria’s Selma Malika Haddadi as Deputy Chairperson, Youssouf steps into the leadership of an institution facing a crucible moment, with six of its members suspended and critical African minerals up for grabs in a scene reminiscent of the late 19th-century scramble for Africa as well as an Agenda 2063 waiting to be implemented. His leadership skills will be severely tested in the coming months and years. Can this veteran diplomat navigate the minefield of African conflicts and AU’s institutional inertia to deliver real change?

Subtleness Over Loudness

Youssouf’s ascent was far from preordained. Before the elections, Kenya’s Odinga was the candidate to beat, backed by Nairobi’s robust diplomatic machinery and a high-profile campaign that saw Addis Ababa flooded with over 200 Kenyan MPs and officials during the elections. Yet, this overbearing display of power backfired. “The AU resents domination, especially by larger states, they [the Kenyans] didn’t learn from 2017. The AU doesn’t like black masters replacing white [colonial] ones,” Tieku noted, pointing to Kenya’s lost bid for the AU’s top job in 2017.

Kenya’s miscalculations were costly. President Ruto’s support for Israel against the Palestinians which clashed with the AU’s position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict alienated key blocs in North and Southern Africa. Likewise, Nairobi’s recent hosting of Sudanese rebels and M23 rebels further sent the wrong signals to fellow AU Member States like Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

In contrast, Youssouf comes across as suave and urbane coupled with his clear understanding of AU dynamics and lingos, coupled with decades of experience as his country’s top diplomat. His calm demeanor reassured AU members wary of Odinga’s larger-than-life political persona. Fluent in Arabic, French, and English, he built bridges across linguistic and cultural divides. “He’s a top African diplomat; Odinga lacked that pedigree,” Tieku observed.

Yet the tide only turned decisively in Djibouti’s favor after Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato withdrew, shifting Southern Africa’s support to Youssouf. By the third voting round, Odinga’s initial lead had but evaporated. The summit’s exclusive “plus zero” lockdown which barred advisors from negotiating rooms, further underscored Youssouf’s deft diplomatic skills.

Sudan, Sahel, and DRC

Africa’s ongoing conflicts will prove one of Youssouf’s hardest nuts to crack. Sudan’s brutal civil war has already claimed over 20,000 lives while the Sahel remains a hotspot of militant activity within the context of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger’s exit from ECOWAS and the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and the 3 military junta-led countries suspension from the AU.

“Youssouf is expected to shift from Faki’s reactive approach to proactive conflict prevention. Rather than focusing solely on military interventions, he will likely emphasize mediation and early warning mechanisms. On the issue of coups, Youssouf will be firmer. Faki wavered on Chad—Youssouf won’t!” Tieku asserted.

The conflict in the eastern DRC remains an intractable one pitching DRC and Rwanda against each other via alleged proxies i.e DRC-backed FDLR and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. So far, the concept of African solutions to African problems has failed in DRC. Efforts by the African Union, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and the East African Community (EAC) through the Nairobi and Luanda processes are yet to yield the desired results.

Tieku believes leveraging the unmatched influence of African religious and traditional leaders could prove decisive in silencing the guns in Africa. “Chiefs mediated 30% of conflicts in Africa last year,” he noted, referencing findings fromtheArmed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a disaggregated data collection, analysis, and crisis mapping initiative.

Agenda 2063 and Africa’s Youth

Since over 60% of Africa’s population is under 25 the success of Youssouf’s tenure will, among others, be determined by his ability to foster meaningful youth inclusion. Young Africans need jobs, political representation, digital connectivity, and freedom to move freely around the continent yet AU programs and initiatives in these directions have often fallen short. “Agenda 2063 promises prosperity but the youth need to see tangible results,” Tieku asserted.

Thus, one of Youssouf’s key challenges will be mobilizing AU resources for youth empowerment initiatives. Key to achieving this will be the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), AU free movement and labor migration policies as well as the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM).

Whether through pan-African tech incubators or policies fostering youth participation in intra-African trade, Djibouti’s ex-foreign minister’s success will be measured by his ability to translate policy rhetoric into real economic opportunities for Africa’s young population.

 

Navigating Climate Diplomacy under Trump 2.0 Era

As climate change increasingly threatens African economies, Youssouf will also need to play a proactive role in global climate diplomacy particularly securing climate adaptation financing for Africa. The AU has pledged carbon neutrality by 2050, yet adaptation financing remains insufficient. “Africa contributes less than 4% to global emissions but suffers disproportionately,” Tieku noted.

Youssouf’s tenure coincides with Donald Trump’s second term casting uncertainty over Africa’s global standing. The U.S. Geological Survey lists Africa as a linchpin for lithium, cobalt, and rare earth minerals powering phones, EVs, and green tech. Likewise, Trump’s “America First” redux, evidenced by his 2025 tariff threats, could squeeze Africa’s trade leverage.

Tieku framed it starkly: “The rules-based order that’s held for 80 years is decaying – Trump, Putin, and China eye our minerals and virtual spaces. Today it’s Ukraine; tomorrow it could be Nigeria or Ethiopia,” he said, underlining Russia’s Wagner Group expansion in the Sahel and China’s mineral deals in the DRC.

Fixing AU’s Internal Challenges

Beyond geopolitics and security, Youssouf faces the pressing need to fix internal governance challenges within the AU. The AU Commission has long been plagued by inefficiencies, with a 2024 audit revealing 60% of its staff positions were filled through political patronage rather than merit. “This weakens the Commission’s ability to function effectively,” Tieku remarked.

Youssouf’s partnership with Deputy Chairperson Haddadi will be crucial in tackling these challenges. The duo’s ability to foster transparency in staff recruitment and budget allocation will determine whether or not the Commission can evolve into a more effective institution. “She [Haddadi] is known for her administrative rigor, and together, they could clean up a system that has struggled with financial mismanagement and bureaucratic inertia,” Tieku added.

With regards to gender parity, the AU is one of the most gender-friendly institutions in the world, with a 50-50 leadership split between men and women and women comprising 40% of its workforce – outpacing the UN’s 37%. Yet, achieving parity hinges on broader systemic change at the Commission as a huge gap persists at the mid-career level.

“Parity exists at the top and bottom, but patriarchal norms stifle progress at mid-levels. Member States are to blame for this imbalance. Male-dominated ministries at member-state level nominate mostly male candidates to fill vacant positions in the AU,” Tieku pointed out.

Faki vs Youssouf: Continuity or Change?

When he assumed office as AU Commission Chairperson in 2017, Moussa Faki Mahamat’s top priorities were the AU’s structural reforms informed by Summit decisions and the Kagame Report on AU’s Institutional Reforms, Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020, enhancing intra-African trade [via AfCFTA], placing women and youth at the center of Africa’s development agenda as well as strengthening Africa’s voice in the global arena. 

Many of Faki’s priorities such as launching the AfCFTA, mainstreaming women and youth at the AU including the appointment of an AU Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Envoy and AU Youth Envoy as well as enhancing Africa’s voice in the global arena have been fully or partially achieved, there was barely any progress with others like silencing the guns with new conflicts emerging in Sudan and preexisting ones in the Sahel and DRC either stagnating or aggravating.

Regarding what the AU Member States seek to achieve in electing Youssouf, Tieku thinks they want the style of governance to remain the same as under Faki but the substance to change. Specifically, he thinks, they want someone who will act as a bridge builder between Africa’s major cultural and linguistic fault lines while addressing the historical marginalization of North Africa in AU top leadership positions hence Haddadi’s election as Deputy Chairperson.

“Love or hate him, Chairperson Faki was stylistically fabulous as AU’s chief diplomat. There were only a few instances in his 8 years as chairperson he made diplomatic blunders. But on the substance, they [Member States] want the Commission to be better managed specifically by someone who will act as a bridge builder between Africa’s major blocks i.e Anglophone, Francophone, and the North Africans,” Tieku believes.

While Youssouf shares some of his predecessor’s traits, his leadership may bring subtle but significant shifts. Governance, which Tieku believes took a backseat under Faki, is set to become a priority with Haddadi expected to deal with internal reforms and inefficiencies highlighted in recent AU audits. “To some extent, Faki lost control in terms of governance; he comes from a country that is not known as an apostle of democracy,” Tieku believes.

Irrespective of how his tour of duty in Addis Ababa unfolds, by the next AU elections in 2029, the major yardsticks for assessing Youssouf’s success or otherwise as Africa’s chief diplomat will not be very different from his predecessor’s. The prevalent challenges and issues such as silencing guns, AU reforms, enhancing mobility, implementing AfCFTA and the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) will remain relevant in the next four years.